Japan Grant Aid Project to Government of Pakistan Lai Nullah Flood Forecasting and Warning System

INTRODUCTION

This System Maintenance & Operation Manual has been prepared for the system management as one of the soft components, which is closely connected with the hydrological engineering training to be provided in parallel. This manual as described below will apply to the trainings for operation and maintenance of the Flood Forecasting and Warning System.

1. Objectives of the Project

The high-rank goal of the Project of Development of the Lai Nullah River Flood Forecasting & Warning System is “to reduce flood disasters, in particular, to decrease the dead and injured due to floods by improving the flood forecasting accuracy and reinforcing the evacuation order issuing/transmission network in the Metropolitan Area”. Under this high-rank goal, the objectives of this Project is “to secure the sufficient evacuation time by improving the flood forecasting accuracy and to shorten the evacuation time by reinforcing the evacuation order issuing/transmission network in event of flood occurrence.”

1.1 Issue of accurate flood forecasting and warning

Rawalpindi City has established the standard for issuing flood warning to urge the residents for evacuation if the Lai Nullah water level rises to 20 feet from the Lai Nullah bottom at the point of Gawal Mandi Bridge. However, it had been impossible to forecast the water level change after the water level rises to 20 feet because the rainfall observation in the upstream basin was not made. Thus, it had to issue an evacuation order just before or after a flood. In these circumstances, a flood forecasting and warning system has been introduced for issuing faster and more accurate warnings to urge the residents for evacuation. For issuing accurate flood forecasts and warnings by various concerned agencies, it is necessary to timely transmit various types of flood-related information including rainfalls, water levels and flood alert water levels to residents and related agencies.

For further improvement of the flood forecasting accuracy, it is necessary to monitor the relations between rainfall patterns and river water level rises and the basin characteristics. Therefore, the transfer of the hydrological technology including runoff analysis to grasp the relation between the rainfall patterns and river water levels (runoff quantities) has been implemented by different instructors.

1.2 Shortening of time from flood warning detection to evacuation

The present warning issuing standard specifies that warning sirens shall be sounded when the water levels at points in the city rise to 20ft or more from the Lai Nullah bottom. However, the result of calculation of the 25-year probability rainfalls shows that a flood starts in less than 10 minutes after the water level exceeds the warning issuing standard, so that not only the warning but also residents’ evacuation cannot be made timely. Depending upon the rainfall mode, the flood may have already started when the warning is issued. To avoid these problems, it is aimed at building a system which can issue an evacuation order at least 1 to 2 hours before the flood start in order to obtain a sufficient evacuation time after the implementation of the Project by setting the target

*1 Rawalpindi City has established the standard for issuing flood warning to urge the residents for evacuation if the Lai Nullah water level rises to 20 feet from the Lai Nullah bottom at the point of Gawal Mandi Bridge. However, it had been impossible to forecast the water level change after the water level rises to 20 feet because the rainfall observation in the upstream basin was not made.

Organization

The Flood Forecasting and Warning System is developed aiming at the high-rank goal “to reduce flood disasters, in particular, to decrease the dead and injured due to floods by improving the flood forecasting accuracy and reinforcing the evacuation order issuing/transmission network in the Metropolitan Area”. For the effective operation of this Flood forecasting and Warning System, therefore, it is necessary to define the functions and responsibility of each of the related agencies concerned with the operation of this system and to promote the close cooperation and tie-ups between the related agencies.

2.1 Organization in Flood Relief Plan 2006 District Rawalpindi

The flood relief plan 2006 has been issued by the District Coordination Office Rawalpindi. The flood inundation area, the organization and the role of the flood control are specifically set in the flood relief plan. The Lai Nullah Flood Forecasting and Warning System are not incorporated in this plan. Therefore, close coordination between flood relief plan 2006 and the Flood Forecasting and Warning System is necessary. Specifically, the Lai Nullah Flood Forecasting and Warning System must be fixed as there are many flood control centre established in the flood relief plan 2006. The review of flood relief plan 2006 is necessary to verify how to incorporate Lai Nullah Flood Forecasting and Warning System in total plan for flood control in Rawalpindi district.

2.1.1 The establishment of the flood control centre

In accordance with section 3 & 4 of Flood Relief Plan 2006, the task of the flood relief plan 2006 for the Rawalpindi district, the establishment of the following flood control centre is in the planning stage.

Ø The District Flood Control Centre:
The district flood control centre has been established in the District Office in Rawalpindi under the control of the District Officer (Rev). All flood information and related message are collected to the district flood control centre. The District Officer (Rev) selects and disseminates this information to all related organizations immediately. District Officer (Rev) has responsibility for all of the operation and management of the District Flood Control Centre.

Ø TMA Flood Control Centre:
TMA flood control centre is established same as the Rawalpindi district office. This centre is under the command of the District Officer. This centre manages fire fighting and control of evacuation etc.

Ø Local Flood Control Centre
Local Flood Control Centre is established in the Civil Defense Office, Rawalpindi during flood season.

Ø Army Flood Control Centre
The army flood control centre is established in the 111th Independent Infantry Brigade Headquarters during flood season.

Ø The Cantonment Board Flood Control Centre
The Cantonment Board Flood Control Centre is established in Gawal Mandi Fire Station.

2.1.1 The Position of Lai Nullah Flood Forecasting and Warning System.

Lai Nullah Flood Forecasting and Warning System is roughly divided into (i) the flood forecasting system and (ii) the flood warning system. The flood forecasting system is established in PMD in accordance with the master plan design and the flood warning system is established in TMA in the Rawalpindi district with the consent of related stakeholders. Therefore, it installs the Flood Forecasting and Warning Master Control Centre (hereinafter called FFWMC) is installed in PMD which forecasts flood and shall undertake dissemination of flood information. The Flood warning control centre (hereinafter called FWCC) is installed at TMA Rawal Town, Rawalpindi for prevention against disasters to be controlled through siren warning.

2.2 Functions and Responsibility of Related Agencies

(1) Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD)
At present, Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) is disseminating daily weather forecast, the flood warning, as well as the flood related information through print and electronic media. To improve the accuracy of the flood forecasting information, FFWMC is set up within Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). This Centre will have the functions of preparing flood forecasts by the use of the Flood Forecasting System and transmitting them as flood information to the related agencies. In particular, flood forecasting information will be transmitted to TMA Rawal Town, Rawalpindi (TMA) in a reliable way to promote the faster and reliable warning activity. The flood information will be issued on the approval of Director General of PMD.

(2) TMA Rawalpindi
The FWCC will be set up within TMA Rawalpindi where TMA Flood Control Centre guidance of the Flood Relief Plan 2006 will be established. This centre will issue flood evacuation orders through the Flood Warning System based on the flood warning information transmitted from the FFWMC. The issuance of flood warnings and evacuation orders will be reported to the Executive District Officer (Municipal Services) of the District Coordination Office and enforced with the approval of the said officer. The District Officer (Fire Fighting) of FWCC and the District Officer (Rev) of the District Flood Control Centre will have the responsibility for issuing flood warnings and evacuation orders. The District Flood Control Centre must inform the collected information to the Local Flood Control Centre, Army Flood Control Centre as well as Rawalpindi Cantonment Board Flood Control Centre.

(3) Federal Flood Commission (FCC)
The Federal Flood Commission will mainly undertake the flood monitoring of activities relative to flood control.

(4) Water and Sanitation Agency of RDA (WASA)
The Water and Sanitation Agency (WASA) will undertake the flood monitoring while it will support the flood disaster prevention activity under the leadership of the District Flood Control Centre as needed.

2.3 Flood Forecasting & Warning Master Control Centre (FFWMC), PMD

FFWMC is responsible for the following functions:
On behalf of issuing Director General or Chief Meteorologist, PMD has the function of issue of flood forecast to related agencies and mass media in the 24-hour basis during the flood season (July – September every year).
Well trained Whether Forecaster and Telecommunication engineer are in charge of monitoring the information from the meteorological satellites and meteorological radar and the measured water level and rainfall data in the flood season (3 months). If any flood is expected, the senior officer of PMD directly monitors the situation around the clock and prepare the forecast pertaining to Flood.

They are in charge of the following services in the event of flood occurrence:

(1) To operate the rainfall/water-level telemetry system, and collect and store hydrological/meteorological information throughout the year;
(2) To make flood forecasts based on the collected measured data;
(3) To transmit flood forecast information including flood warning to TMA Rawalpindi and FFC through the new system, and release whether Clarence information to TMA.
(4) To receive the operation status on the operation of the Flood Warning System operated by FWCC through phone line even if the operation is cleared/.

PMD is disseminating weather forecast and flood information to related agencies as well as mass media through Fax and telephone by fixed format as usual. In addition, the automatic flood information will be disseminated through the flood forecasting and warning system. Fig.2.2 shows information flow for weather forecasting and flood information.

2.4 Flood warning control centre (FWCC) TMA, Rawalpindi City

The Chief and Sub-Chief of the FWCC are in charge of directing the emergency system and issuing evacuation urging warnings on the 24-hour basis during the flood season (July – September every year). One river engineer shall take charge of monitoring water-level/rainfall data and flood forecasting data for the flood season (3 months). If a flood is forecast, the river engineer shall cooperate with the Chief (or Sub-Chief) of the FWCC in monitoring water-level/rainfall data and flood forecasting data on the 24-hour basis (July – September every year).

According to the Flood Relief Plan 2006, City District Government is obligated to execute the following plans in case of flood occurrence:

· Setup of a flood control centre in TMA (FWCC)
· Quick issue of flood warning order
· Rescue and evacuation
· Relief activities and rehabilitation

Based on the above plans, the FWCC takes charge of the following functions in case of a flood:

(1) To connect to the Web server at the FFWMC at all times and monitor rainfall/water-level data;
(2) To get in the flood standby state if a flood warning is indicated on the flood warning information board;
(3) To make visual observation of the water levels at Kattarian Bridge and Gawal Mandi Bridge;
(4) To report flood information including flood warning, evacuation warning and release orders to the responsible person in charge (Executive District Officer, Municipal Services) of issuing a warning order immediately after receiving such flood information, and to issue a warning order such as flood warning or evacuation order through the Flood Warning System under the responsible person’s (District Officer, Fire Fighting, Rawalpindi) command, taking into consideration the visually observed water-level data at Kattarian Bridge and Gawal Mandi Bridge;
(5) To check the automatically returned information from the Warning Posts and confirm that the flood warning has been issued properly and notify the flood warning to residents through loudspeaker of fire engines and other means such as beat of drums; and
(6) To command flood evacuation activities.

2.5 Federal Flood Commission (FFC)

One flood control planning engineer shall be in charge of monitoring water-level and rainfall data and flood forecasting data for the flood season (3 months). If a flood is foreseen the engineer shall cooperate with other flood control planning personnel to coordinate with the agencies related to flood forecasting and warning activities on the 24-hour basis.
2.6 Water and Sanitation Agency (WASA)

The services of the WASA personnel that are required for operation and maintenance of the facilities are as follows:

One river and sewer engineer shall be in charge of monitoring water level and rainfall data and flood forecasting data for the flood season (3 months). If a flood is foreseen, the engineer shall cooperate with computer engineers to monitor the flood data on the 24-hour basis (July – September every year) and shall request the WASA’s responsible person for flood prevention support on request District Flood Control Centre.

2.7 Responsibilities for Services in Non-Flood Season and Flood Season *

In general, floods used to occur in the rainy monsoon season from July to September in the project area, and scarcely occur during the non-flood season from October to June. Thus, it is unnecessary to operate the Flood Forecasting & Warning System throughout the year. For the efficient operation of the system, the services in the non-flood season include the preparatory activities for possible flood occurrences including analysis and arrangement of measured data, improvement of flood forecasting technology and review of the standard for issuing flood warning orders. The agencies related to the operation of the Flood Forecasting & Warning System will have the following services in the flood and non-flood seasons:


Agency
Services in Flood Season
(July to September every year)
Services in Non-Flood Season (October to June every year)
Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD)
· Rainfall and water-level gauging by telemetry
· Flood forecasting
· Preparation of flood forecast messages
· Issue of flood information (warnings and alerts, evacuation warning and release orders)
· Arrangement and analysis of rainfall and water-level data
· Improvement of flood forecasting accuracy
· Establishment of the (draft) standard for issuing flood forecasts and warnings
Federal Flood Commission (FFC)
· Monitoring of rainfall and water-level data
· Supervising of flood forecasts
· Coordination with related agencies
· Coordination of the works of establishing and improving the (draft) standard for issuing flood forecasts and warnings (joint works of PMD and TMA)
City District Government Rawalpindi (CDG) and
TMA-Rawal Town Rawalpindi (TMA)
· Monitoring of rainfall and water-level data
· Issuing of flood warnings (alerts, evacuation and release orders)
· Establishment of the (draft) standard for issuing flood forecasts and warnings
· Arrangement of flood evacuation warning records
· Installation of warning equipment
Water and Sanitation Agency (WASA)
· Monitoring of rainfall and water-level data and flood forecasts
· Support of flood prevention activities
· Lie Nullah cleaning
· Garbage removal, etc

* Footmark: Non-Flood Season: October – June every year
Flood Season : July – September every year
3. Flow of Flood Information

Flood information is transmitted from FFWMC through new Flood Forecasting and Warning System to the related agencies in the method as described below and depicted in Fig. 3.1.

FFWMC analyzes the real-time rainfall and water-level data collected automatically from the radio telemetry system, and if the rainfall and water levels measured at gauging points exceed preset values, the flood information such as flood pre-alert, alert and evacuation are automatically detected by the FFWS Server respectively.

(1) The processed data is transmitted through the Web Server to each flood monitoring station via wireless LAN. The data is updated whenever the telemetry observation is made and the latest information is transmitted to related agencies all the times.
(2) If a rainfall or water-level value reaches the preset pre-alert, alert or evacuation warning value, a voice or lamp alarm by alert and warning is given from the Warning Information Boards that are installed in FFWMC and in FWCC in order to alert the personnel in charge.
(3) The flood information is recorded in a given format and transmitted through the facsimile to the FWCC and related agencies.
(4) The latest flood conditions are notified by IP telephone.
(5) FFWMC and FWCC will communicate with the flood control centers which are not belonging to the Flood Forecasting and Warning System for Lai Nullah, through ordinal telephone and fax. The transmission format shall follows as existing method.


4. Mechanical System for Flood Forecasting and Warning

4.1 System Description

This Flood Forecasting and Warning System is designed as a total system to execute a series of works ranging from flood forecasting to flood evacuation, which will be operated under the close work cooperation among the related agencies as shown below.

The basic configuration of the entire system includes the equipment necessary for the rainfall/water-level gauging and prediction/forecasting works to be done by PMD, the equipment necessary for issuing evacuation warning orders from CDG/TMA, and the flood monitoring equipment installed at FFC and WASA.

PMD will control the automatic rainfall and water-level gauging by the telemetry sub-systems and make flood predictions based on the telemetry data and the meteorological data from meteorological radar equipment and meteorological observation points. The resulting flood data is transmitted to CDG/TMA and monitoring stations by existing FAX lines or on Web as the flood warning bulletins edited by the Web Server. CDG/TMA is responsible for issuing evacuation warning orders through the warning sub-systems. The Flood Forecasting and Warning System consist of three (3) types of sub-system to transmit flood warnings to related agencies.

(1) Radio telemetry-based rainfall/water-level gauging sub-systems (under the control of PMD). Automatic gauging of rainfall/water-level data is made by radio telemetry equipment.
(2) Data processing and transmission sub-systems (under the control of PMD, TMA, FFC and WASA)
The telemetry data received by PMD is calculated and analyzed to detect the alert rainfall, basin average alert rainfall and water level values, and warning alarms are indicated on the warning information board. The warning information is also automatically transmitted from the Web server through wireless LAN equipment to the warning monitoring systems installed at TMA, FFC and WASA.
(3) Flood warning sub-system (under the control of CDG/TMA)
CDG/TMA determines whether to issue the flood alerts and evacuation warnings based on the flood information transmitted from PMD, and the alert or warning is transmitted from the flood warning sub-system to 10 flood warning posts, at which the alert or warning is issued to residents by siren or broadcasting means. The flood warning sub-system is designed as a type which is manually operated by the operating person after the responsible person of the city district government decides to issue an alert or warning and can check that all the warning posts are normally actuated to transmit the alert or warning.

Station
Function
Organization in charge
1. Master Control Center
PMD, Islamabad
• Flood forecasting data collection
• Data processing
• Dissemination of flood information to related agencies
(Data transmission subsystem
PMD
2. Rainfall Gauging Station
2.1 PMD, Islamabad
Automatic rainfall data observation
(Telemetry subsystem)
PMD
2.2 Saidpur
2.3 Gorla
2.4 Bokla
2.5 RAMC
2.6 Chaklala
3. Water Level Gauging Station
3.1 Kattarian Bridge
Automatic water level data observation
(Telemetry subsystem)
PMD
3.2 Gawal Mandi Bridge
4. Repeater Station
4.1 RAMC Telemetry Repeater
• Repeater function for telemetry
PMD
4.2 RAMC Wireless LAN Repeater
• Repeater function for wireless LAN
5. Monitoring Station
5.1 FFC
Flood information monitoring
(Data transmission subsystem)
FFC
5.2 WASA
Flood information monitoring
(Data transmission subsystem)
WASA
6. Flood warning control centre
TMA Rawalpindi:
- Warning Control & Supervision

- Flood Information Monitoring

Control and supervision of warning system

CDG/TMA
Flood information monitoring
(Data transmission subsystem)
7. Flood Warning Post
7.1 WP-1: TMA Rawalpindi
Flood evacuation warning by motor
siren and loudspeaker
TMA
7.2 WP-2: Christian Colony
7.3 WP-3: Water Treatment adjacent MC
7.4 WP-4: Ratta Amral Bridge
7.5 WP-5: Gunj Mandi Bridge
7.6 WP-6: Pir Wadhai Bridge
7.7 WP-7: Fire Station Pir Wadhai
7.8 Sector IV-B, Khayaban Park
7.9 WP-9: Gawal Mandi Children’s Park
7.10 WP-10: Government Middle School, Dhoke



The telemetry system consists of 6 rainfall gauging stations and 2 water-level gauging stations. The rainfall and water-level data is automatically collected through the RAMC repeater station by the telemetry supervising and control equipment installed at FFWMC. The telemetry supervising and control equipment is capable of automatic observation of measured hydrological data in the intervals of 10 minutes, 30 minutes and one (1) hour.
The rain gauging station is capable of responding to the gauging commands and transmitting the measured data, it has the event-actuated function of transmitting the request for actuation to the telemetry supervising and control equipment automatically at the rainfall start. When the actuation request signal is received at the telemetry supervising and control equipment, the measurement will be started at all the gauging stations.